The Syrian Observatory For Human Rights

Split within the GCC adds to Arab League summit challenges

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The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain withdrew their ambassadors from fellow Gulf Cooperation Council member Qatar in the weeks leading up to the summit over Doha’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

The diplomatic fallout, unprecedented for the GCC, adds to the 22-member group’s well-known discord over Egypt, the three-year-old civil war in Syria and conflict in Lebanon, and Iraq.

“Trying to cobble together a semblance of unity in addressing the problems in the region has been hard enough, but this deepening rift between Saudi and Qatar does not bode well at all for the region, let alone the Arab League summit,” said Imad Salamey, a political science professor at Beirut’s Lebanese American University.

“The region’s conflicts are so intense, yet the divisions over what to do about it may never have been so intense.”

The summit, which closes on Wednesday, will include a special session to discuss “clearing the atmosphere and compromises”, said Fadhel Jawad, an Arab League spokesman.

Kuwait’s foreign minister, Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al Sabah, and the Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby, said that the differences will be debated, but declined to reveal any specific mediation efforts.

Sheikh Sabah acknowledged that the summit was being held under “highly delicate” circumstances and that Arab countries were faced with serious challenges.

The summit will also debate a new counter-terrorism pact tabled by Egypt, Mr Jawad said, amid reports that Cairo and Riyadh could press other member states to declare the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organisation.

Other issues expected to be addressed include the crisis in Lebanon, where factions have increasingly been drawn into opposing sides of Syria’s civil war, regional economic and social developments, and the Palestinian-Israel conflict.

Theodore Karasik, the director of research and consultancy at the Dubai-based Institute of Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, called the summit “the greatest opportunity for the Arab League to show that it can pull together in the face of a changing region, but they have not been able to do so”.

As a result of such low expectations for action, he said: “There’s a very good question about how serious the GCC states see the Arab League right now.”

Possessing vast oil wealth, the GCC states wield enormous political and economic leverage that Washington and Europe hope will forge a somewhat united policy to address crises across the region, analysts said.

But rather than aiming for unity, the GCC countries – Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in particular – appear more divided now than they have in years.

“Today it’s difficult to argue that the Gulf can be the backbone of a regional initiative,” said Emile Hokayem, a Middle East analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “I think there are concerns where all of this is going.”

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have supported the interim government in Egypt after the military removed Mohammed Morsi as president in July. Mr Morsi is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, which the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain consider a fundamental threat to regional stability.

Doha has demonstrated little interest in scaling back its support for the Islamist social and political group. The country is home to some of the Brotherhood’s most influential figures, including its outspoken spiritual guide, Youssef Al Qaradawi, whose Friday sermons have angered Qatar’s neighbours.

One western analyst and adviser to a GCC country said the standoff over the Brotherhood could escalate into sanctions being brought against Doha. “In the eyes of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, Qatar would be seen as sponsoring state terrorism, and that could open space for a range of retaliatory measures,” said the adviser.

Despite opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, Riyadh and Doha also have carved out competing factions to support. However, Qatar said on Sunday that there were no differences with Saudi Arabia in supporting Syrian rebels.

“We have the highest level of coordination with the Friends of Syria and in particular with Saudi Arabia,” Qatar’s foreign minister, Khaled Al Attiyah, said.

However the issue of Doha’s support for the Brotherhood still remains and is as much about projecting regional influence as it is about competing with Saudi Arabia, analysts said.

Even if there is wrangling over Qatar’s policies behind closed doors at Tuesday’s summit, few expect the country’s new emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, to change course.

That may set the stage for further gridlock in Kuwait over how to address the region’s crises.

Writing this month for the Project on Middle East Political Science, David B Roberts, an expert on Qatari foreign policy at King’s College London, said the Qatari leader “cannot submit to regional pressure, for this would look weak, send the wrong signals as to Qatar’s status under his charge”.

 


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