Coalition in Syria faces massive task

Syria’s National Coalition, which brings together the country’s opposition, spent its first week of existence trying to build international support. Its forces on the ground continue to battle against the still-powerful military of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

Woefully outgunned and outnumbered, the rebels continue to be battered on the ground and from the air by Al-Assad’s army and air force. But still, they bravely fight on, in a conflict that has claimed an estimated 39,000 lives and left Syria in a state of ruin.

Despite the odds, the National Coalition is already looking towards strengthening international support of its cause. In the past week, National Coalition leader Ahmed Muaz al-Khatib was in London securing the support of the British government, while the former leader of the Syria National Council and now National Coalition member, George Sabra, was in Dubai pitching for business.

Sabra said Syria would require $60bn in aid in six months to stave off economic collapse in the wake of Al-Assad’s ousting.

He argued that a “Marshall Plan-style” financial rescue package should be initiated immediately. “The regime is in the stage of decline and will not last long,” he said.

Developments on the ground suggest otherwise. While Al-Assad’s regime has undoubtedly been weakened, the civil war has reached a stalemate in many parts of the country. The increasingly Islamist tone to the conflict is also a worrying development that has largely been downplayed by the National Coalition. Recent history suggests they do so at their peril.

Iraq should serve as a reminder of how the best-laid political strategies mean little in the face of an Islamist insurgency. The fact that 13 armed Islamist groups active in Syria have officially rejected the National Coalition, branding it a Western tool, suggests if and when Al-Assad falls, the challenge facing the opposition to unite the country will be far greater than its current push to gain international credibility.

 

 

MEED